So much for the normal summer.  Even my hoped-for trip to Israel at the end of the year is unsettled.

Why?   Because so many folks have not gotten vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, even more refuse to wear masks to protect us all- despite the fact that the delta variant is far more virulent and the lambda variant may be as potent.

Here’s the real problem.  The delta variant has a reproductive number (R₀) of at least 6- and it could be as high as 9.  The initial SARS-CoV-2 virus came in somewhere between 2 and 4.

That meant that back in April of 2020, an infected subject would “donate” his virus load to somewhere between 2 and 4 folks who lack immunity against the virus.  (Now you see that the delta variant is somewhere between 2.5 and 3 times as virulent as the initial strain.)

But, that doesn’t help us when some folks have been inoculated, had the disease (and now are considered relatively immune, due to their body’s immune system memory).  For that, we need to use R_e, or the effective reproductive number.  And, one begins to see why we need so many more folks to be inoculated.  (Or, at the very least wearing a mask in the crowd- because that lowers the reproductive number for the delta variant closer to 2 or 3.)

You can also see why giving booster shots to the entire population is virtually immaterial.  Because right now, we don’t see the effectiveness rate of the vaccines dropping dramatically with time.  (Please note we have NO idea what happens at 2 years- so new data may mean new conclusions.)

And, only getting one dose of the vaccine (and not both the requisite inoculations) is just as detrimental.  Because the vaccine is less than 50% effective with only one dose.  Which increases the effective transmission rate dramatically.

The best answer to this viral pandemic is to be vaccinated.  And, for us to wear masks in crowded public locations unless and until we are in a region where the population is highly vaccinated.

(We need to wear masks because science has shown that both the uninsulated and the vaccinated harbor a plethora of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in our sinus passages.  [The uninsulated succumb to the disease; rarely does a vaccinated human develop symptoms.]  So, we are still spreading the viral particles- even if we are inoculated.  So, PLEASE, wear a mask when in crowds to help us get this disease under control.)

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