Mea culpa.

Yes, I didn’t know enough.

As was the famous statement by Donald Rumsfeld- about the only statement he ever made with which I agreed.  “There are known knowns- there are the things we know we know.  We also know there are known unknowns- that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know.  But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

I have always worked hard to shrink the domain of the unknown unknowns- because those are the things that will destroy our ability to thrive.  And, I’m mighty lucky to have an extremely large domain of known knowns- a characteristic of polymaths.

But, let’s consider.

Back when I was a tyke, I read my dad’s chemistry textbook.  And, I couldn’t believe how wrong some of those facts were. I remember asking how it was that such wrong information was being taught.

Or, when I decided to build a contraption to detect the quality of water in my hydroponic garden so that I would know when more nutrients were needed to sustain and promote growth of my crops.  And, I was told there were no such device.  So, I made it- despite being told it was impossible to do that.

Putting tiled walls in bathrooms of hospitals and clinics meant it was very easy to wash them down with a bleach solution, so there would be little likelihood of bacterial contamination.   Until we found out that Serratia marcescens could survive in the air (with a pretty low relative humidity of 30%, as is often found in hospitals) for about 3 days.  Conditions that those tiled bathrooms promoted.  So, out went the tiled walls and in came the rules that only patients- and not their visitors- could use the patient bathrooms.

Or, when Dr. Willem Kolff wanted to make dialysis easier, he switched the buffer in dialysate to acetate from bicarbonate, because it was soluble in water.   And, then he went to the largest provider of dialysate, Ed Simon of EdLaw Pharmaceuticals, to produce this new liquid concentrate.  Ed avowed that no one would want to pay for the shipment of a gallon or two of liquid around the world when they could get the small packet of dialysate components they needed easily.  So, Dr. K went to a teeny little entity called Travenol who agreed to the concept.  Oh, yeah- you now know Travenol as Baxter, a $ 12 billion megacorp.

Years later, when folks realized that the acetate buffer was harming their patients, they began selling the bicarbonate buffer in packets, because they ‘knew’ it wouldn’t be soluble.  (Back to the days of Ed Simon!) Until we developed the process to produce bicarbonate dialysate in solution, leading to the formation of Bicarbolyte.  You know, doing the impossible, changing the rules of chemistry.

All of which is a long-winded introduction to today’s two (very related) topics.

The Six Foot Social Distancing Rule

Our initial knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 led us to believe that the viral particles loved to stay suspended in droplets.  And, we knew from science and testing that a six foot distance would make it very unlikely to be overwhelmed with viral contamination if we maintained a six foot social distance.

Oh, wait.  Remember that data point about Serratia marcescens?   They, too, were suspended in droplets and stayed viable for three days.  But, if not in droplets, they’d fall to the floor and die off.

But, viruses are roughly 1/10 the size of bacteria.  And, lo and behold, they can stay airborne for a long time.  (Think of the dust you see when the light hits it just right.  The Tyndall effect.)   So, that six foot distance- it’s ok, but not quite right.

It’s why I have been advocating for air filtration and improved ventilation to reduce the chance for viral infection in enclosed spaces. It works for restaurants, schools, mass transit and the like.  With improved ventilation and air purification, we might not even have a need for masks.

Which brings up something that arose from a reader’s comment on my blog.  She questioned the value of vaccines since folks are still getting sick.   Here’s the essence of my reply…

Vaccinations ARE effective. They are not 100% foolproof; there are no such vaccines yet. But, when enough folks have been vaccinated, then herd immunity means that the virus begins to find it impossible to find a host, so we have less- or no- infections.

But, there’s another fact.  Our being vaccinated doesn’t give us superpowers.  It doesn’t create a bubble around our body, wherein any virus particle is attacked and killed.  No, the  vaccine NEVER kills a virus until it’s within the human body. Because that’s where our immune system operates- within our corpus.

So, when the virus circulates in the air and is inhaled by a subject, that same virus can be exhaled from its nostrils.  It never enters the confines of our body where the antibodies and immune system can go to work. (This is where masks come into play- diminishing the viral load on the body and, if viruses pass through the mask, they find it harder to be exhaled into the environment.)

That explained why it’s possible for a virus (or a hundred) to be exhaled by a fully vaccinated individual who is not wearing a mask, spreading to those anti-vaxxers who then succumb to the viral attack.

Moreover, the non-vaccinated folks provide the virus an opportunity to mutate within their body, as has happened with the creation of the omicron mutant version. This variant has incorporated elements of the common cold within itself. Making it more likely to be transmitted- but thankfully less likely to be lethal.

I hope this sets the record straight.  Because as we learn more (conquer the unknown unknowns or known unknowns), we become better equipped to deal with challenges.