I am writing once again about SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19.  For good reasons.

Because we have a president who defies science, prevaricates routinely, and is leaving America at risk.  We are not just succumbing to death at an unprecedented rate (246 million and counting- both as a percentage of the total illnesses and over a less than 10 month span), to persistent long-term complications from COVID-19 (11 million and counting- with 1 million new infectees just in the last week)- but to the destruction of small business (60% of our small businesses have simply disappeared) and to our economic well-being.

(We should all recognize that some 90,000 of those 250K deaths- mor than 1/3- are from those living or working in nursing homes.  Yes- that’s related to less than optimal inspection, working, and living conditions at these facilities.)

Now that it’s getting colder, more folks are congregating indoors.  And, therein lies the first problem.  Being indoors with strangers- at gyms, restaurants, coffee shops- that is the absolute riskiest behavior we can initiate.  (With the exception of going to an airport and undergoing TSA inspection (sic).)  And, according to a very recent study (published in Nature;  Drs. Serina Chang, Emma Pierson, PangWei Koh, David Grusky, and Jure Leskovec [all from Stanford University] with Drs. Beth Redbird and Jaline Gerardin [Northwestern] were the authors) restaurants are 4 times risker than gyms and coffee shops.

The data in that study was developed using location data from 98 million Americans in 10 metropolitan areas (Chicago, Washington DC, and New York City, along with 7 others via anonymized data) visiting some 553,000 locations from March to May 2020.  (Wave 1 of the pandemic.)  This was coupled with geographic COVID-19 data to complete the study.  It also means this study could not possible extrapolate any utility for nursing homes or schools, because the phone data for those locations is simply absent.

But, the study gives us additional data as to why Blacks and Hispanics seem to be hit more (and harder) than other Americans.  The study attributes this to two factors.  One- these folks are less likely to be offered the opportunity to work from home, and, two- the venues they frequent are more crowded. (As an example, grocery stores in poorer neighborhoods have some 59% more hourly visitors per square foot than those in affluent neighborhoods  Not part of this study- but as an alert to all those not living in poorer neighborhoods- grocery shopping in affluent neighborhoods is a way too-crowded activity before a football game or a weather event.)

This is why we are seeing enlightened mayors and governors restricting access to restaurants.  For example, Virginia just dropped the hours of operation for restaurants and reduced the number of occupancies, as the US’ third wave (the second wave for the Northeast) threatens to overwhelm hospitals and clinics.  (We are not locking down- we are dimming the lights. For now.  Hoping that our vaccines and therapies will be available soon enough to stem the tide.)

But, the model also condemns the “superspreader” events- like TheDonald’s rallies.  Or the recent demonstrations by his supporters (including militias) that violated their permit (by a fact of 100) and failed to comply with the law requiring masks.  (I have no clue why TheDonald and his friends consider masks to be a political event. It’s not- it’s a matter of survival.  I guess they would have refused “lights out” orders during World War II, too.  Because they lack the fundamental understanding of what patriotism really is.)

For right now, the only safety measures we have are to wear masks, to wash our hands frequently (and avoid contacting them with our eyes and mouths), and to be socially distant from one another.

And, while we’re at it- wearing a mask means you cover your mouth AND your nose, you don’t wear it under your chin- and you clean the mask frequently.

We’ll continue this tomorrow.