So, we have been released from pandemonium. (You know, house arrest.  For us, here in Northern Virginia- that was this past Friday.)

My friend, Andy, thinks we all have to be reminded why we were placed on house arrest.  So, I’ll oblige him.

We’ve been quarantined not because we are/were infected, but to attenuate the case load so our hospitals could handle the sick.  Without self-distancing (or quarantining), the number of cases would simply overload the ability of our health care system to cope.  (Exactly what happened when some states prematurely canceled house arrest over Memorial Day, didn’t require masks, and didn’t require distancing.  So, within ten day, those regions in 24 states have exploded with COVID-19.  As you’ll see at the end of this blog.)

Which brings up the obvious question- should our quarantine be over?  Is that best for me and you?  Or, are we going to be like the folks attending TheDonald’s rally- having to sign a waiver absolving him and his campaign when you succumb to COVID-19?  (At least, he’s not making them inject disinfectant or drinking hydroxychloroquine!)

So, is it safe to exit quarantine?

1. There is no vaccine. There is no effective treatment.
That fact simply means we have clear avenue to ensure that we can be safely walking or working about. Yeah, I know we are going crazy stuck inside our homes, and I know we need money to survive (less than 41% of the folks that were employed on 15 February could really work from home- which is the first reason why unemployment spiked), but still.

2. We don’t have instant testing- or even universal testing.
So, this means not only can’t we be sure we are safe- but we don’t know if we are infecting others- or if our best buds are infecting us!

3. Those numbers about cases plateauing or deaths plateauing… These are as truthful as an utterance from TheDonald’s mouth.
Let’s not begin (of course I am) with Alabama only counting NINE of every TEN deaths from COVID-19 as reportable (no, I am not making this up!), but let’s pick a state that has led the US in responsible pandemic management, New York State. Do you know that New York State only counts COVID-19 deaths for those who were tested as positive- or were in a hospital being treated for COVID-19. If the person was in a nursing home and barely breathing, with no test before they died- they died of other causes. (And, then, consider this fact- 42% of all COVID-19 deaths were nursing home patients. Yup. The place where we ship mom and dad- and which takes a shitload of bucks for their ‘care’- simply killed them off.)
Oh, wait- only 15% of all cases (maybe  as low as 10%) have been properly diagnosed.

And, then, there’s this thing called “excess mortality”. Across America, the total deaths GREATLY exceed our historical trends, plus there are race and ethnicity issues. Who’s tracking this? (Besides me.)

4. Which brings up all those models of which we hear.
While these are clearly the favorite of the media, no one ever discusses what assumptions these models employ, upon what population are they postulated, and how ‘scientific’ these models really are. Of course, they do make great headlines.
I won’t list this separately, since (IMHO) it’s also a model of sorts- Reproductive Numbers. How many folks can one COVID-19 patient infect? Again, unknowable assumptions, plus there is a deviation by at least a week from infection to manifestation. We need far more data about this disease.

5. Given that last sentence- Why have the recommendations changed so often and so drastically?
Because we know very little about the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 infection. It’s not that the “experts” are trying to mislead us- they are rushing to provide us the best judgment they can with the information at hand.
We knew nothing about asymptomatic patients back in February. Back when I- and everyone else- said no masks were really needed. But, with the knowledge of asymptomatic patients (of which I may be one) and their ability to infect others- requiring masks became requisite. Not to keep US safe- but to stop me (or YOU) from infecting them. So, stop complaining that recommendations change- it’s called progress!

6. Where is the contract tracing?
America needs some 300,000 contact tracers. (You do know TheDonald has no intention of having the Feds pay for this. Where do you thing the state and locals (who can’t print money willy nilly) are going to get the funds for this , given the money they’ve spent to date on COVID-19, compounded by deferrals for state/local/prop taxes and no sales with which to generate sales taxes?
And, what do we do with COVID-19 cases that have no known source? Is that because contact tracers (assuming they exist) are not doing their jobs right? Or, that the infectee has a memory akin to an Alzheimer’s patient?
And, finally…

7. Quarantine
Who is making sure that those who are sick, those who may have COVID-19 are quarantined away from the rest of us? And, that depends on getting test results in 3 days or less from sampling. Are we going to put these folks up in a hotel just for the infected? So, they won’t infect any family members?

Don’t you feel better now?

(Don’t get me started about flattening the curve?  Mississippi hospitals are overloaded, as are many rural facilities in other states.)

 

 

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