Is there a way to predict which unlucky soul(s) will develop long-term covid?  It’s bad enough if one contracts the disease, but to have it linger and maintain symptoms for what seems to be forever is simply terrible.

And, that happens with at least 1/3 of those who contract the disease.  Among the long-term symptoms are memory loss, GI (gastrointestinal) distress, fatigue, anosmia (loss of smell), and shortness of breath.

Well, now we may have an inkling.  A team studied some 300 folks for several months after manifesting COVID-19.  (The primary study group was comprised of 208 folks, ranging in age from 18 to 89 that were first seen at Swedish Medical Center in Seattle [one of the first places to perform routine dialysis way back when].) And, as a result, they have identified four factors early and easily discernable that correlate with long-term covid symptomology (officially termed post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 or PASC).  And, the correlation has nothing to do whether or not the COVID-19 case was severe.

Drs. James Heath, Jason Goldman, and Yapeng Su headed up this   68 person team (14 institutions) who reported their results in Cell, “Multiple Early Factors Anticipate Post-Acute COVID-19 Sequelae .

If autoantibodies (these are antibodies that attack body tissues in error) are present, there is a strong chance for the development of PASC. This is similar to what happens with folks who suffer from lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.  (This may be the most influential factor, being associated with 2/3 of the PASC cases.)

Another indicator is the level of coronavirus RNA in the blood (early during the infectious course).   It’s not surprising that an indicator of heavy viral loading would be associated with long COVID.

Then, there’s the ubiquitous little problem virus that we’ve been discussing for the past two blogs.  Epstein-Barr virus, which normally remains dormant in our bodies (we normally first contract EBV when young.)   It’s also not surprising since EBV is associated with chronic fatigue syndrome  (which PASC resembles), as well as MS.

The final factor is one I’ve mentioned before as a complication- Type 2 diabetes.  And, it may turn out that diabetes is but one medical condition that is associated with PASC.

These latter three conditions were associated with 1/3 of the PASC cases, with considerable overlap among all the causative factors.

To augment the 209 initial patients studied, 100 patients at the University of Washington (Dr. Helen Chu led this portion of the study) were also examined for corroboration.  These total results were then compared to 457 healthy subjects.

The only problem is that this study duration may have been too short.  Because some of the patients could shake off symptomology  with time.  But, probably not, since those with lingering neurological issues also have elevated protein levels that are associated with sleep disorders and disrupted circadian rhythms.

And, it’s possible that providing patients antiviral medication may lower the titers of the viral loads, which could preclude the development of PASC.  Those antiviral could should help those who find their dormant EBV revived.

It’s already been 8 days since we were permitted to file personal taxes with the IRS.  It won’t be until the 15th of February when recipients of the ACTA and those seeking an EIC (Earned Income Credit) can file.  So, get my book now to find the ways yuo can minimize your tax burden.

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