Yesterday, we celebrated the birthday of my daughter (a real person, of course). Today, we’ll celebrate the birthday of a groundbreaking new law.
The primary goal of the Inflation Reduction Act is to improve our energy technology (in particular, clean energy) and to reduce our excessive greenhouse gas emissions. But, given the scope of the act and the incentives nailing down what that impact may be is difficult.
That didn’t stop Dr. John Bistline (Electric Power Research Institute) from amassing a group of researchers (22 in total) from EPRI, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Resources for the Future, Evolved Energy Research, the Environmental Protection Agency, Princeton, the Rhodium Group, the National Resources Defense Council, Energy Innovation, Carbon Impact Consulting, National Energy Technology Laboratory,, the Center for Global Sustainability. as well as professors from Dartmouth, Maryland, Binghamton, Stanford, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and MIT, Pretty impressive bunch of credentialled techies, right?
This research, published in Science, employed nine separate models (shown above) to assess the impact of the IRA. Six of them focus on the US economy as a whole and three delve directly into the energy sector. By using multiple models, it becomes clear which predictions are robust and which may be more uncertain. And, when the models disagree, the magnitude of disagreement is evident.
One of the bigger discrepancies involves the solar and wind infrastructure deployed in 2021. (This was the largest annual deployment yet). Some models predict we will double or treble that addition, others are not so expansive. Part of the issue are the effects of permitting, supply chain, and scaleup; if they fall behind, so does our goal attainment.
And, there’s the EV sector. Will EV’s comprise 32 to 52% of light vehicle sales (this is due to the IRA) or will it be 22 to 43% (no IRA implementation). Either way, it’s a big increase from the 7% of electric light vehicle sales that obtains today.
Finally, the models have a tough time predicting results for carbon capture, hydrogen and biofuels, since we have little historical experience to form a basis and then determine how these can scale up.
What is clear is that adoption of the IRA will bring us further into alignment with our Paris Agreement goals. While we will fall short of the 2030 net emission targets, the overall climate benefits will outrank the carbon abatement costs.
Regarding the economy, we are likely to see a 33 to 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, when compared with our 2005 emissions. (Without the IRA, these results would have been lower- closer to 25 to 31%.)
The electric sector analysis gave a wide range of results- from 38 to 80% reductions in decarbonization of the sector.
But, you do remember, we promised to cut our emissions by 50% by 2030- and the IRA is not getting us all the way there.
We have more work to do! But the implementation of the IRA will make it possible.
