We are not going to discuss the inflation taking over America.  (Not to mention, this is a world wide phenomenon.  After all, besides the initial supply chain disruption, Russia’s invasion and annihilation of Ukraine has boosted oil and food prices.)

The real issue is that the US and NATO have not taken the direct action they should.  No, I am not talking about supplying Ukraine with weapons and humanitarian aid.   I’m talking about providing transport support so that the Ukraine can export grain, sunflower oil, and barley. (Yes, the US has allocated $ 5 billion to deal with global food shortages resulting from the Ukraine invasion- but not much real action has been effected.   Building more silos in Ukraine to store more grain is NOT a solution.)

Some 1/3 of the world’s supply of grain and 25% of our barley needs emanate from Ukraine and Russia.  (Not to mention sunflower oil and corn to feed animals.)  And, Russia’s invasion has left last season’s wheat harvest at the Black Sea docks.  (Think of the plethora of ships that were cramming the seas just outside of the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports and how that exacerbated supply issues.)  But, with all the crops (some 20 million metric tons- and counting) still at the docks, it means there is no space for the current harvest to be delivered.

This situation means that conditions in the Middle East and Africa are going to go from bad to terrible.  Russia has basically weaponized food to force the world to side with its invasion of Ukraine.  Places like Nigeria (99% of the wheat needed to feed the population is imported),  Somalia and Ethiopia (the Horn of Africa; the UN has placed the region at the highest need for food in the world); Egypt (world’s largest importer of wheat- 80% of which comes from Ukraine); and Yemen (between the war and famine, food is scarce).

The war has terminated the exports of 30% of the world’s supply of barley and wheat.  Which has also caused food prices to spike.  But, we are allowing Russia’s weaponizing of food to continue. Some 5 to 6 million tons of grain were not making the trip, instead it’s sitting at the Black Sea ports.   (Land routes have just been started, and that will bring exports to some 3 million tons- that still means the world is still short of its food needs.)

Here’s another way Russia is weaponizing food.  It’s sending in troops to commander Ukrainian farms, seize their farm equipment, and the like.   Especially if these folks have fled from the Russian bombing onslaught- their farms are given to “friendlies”.  The Russians have also stolen at least 400,000 metric tons of grains and seeds.

The UN is negotiating with Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine to find a solution to the food problem.   But, we could solve that problem by escorting ships from the Ukraine’s Black Sea ports safely away from potential Russian attacks.  And, that is not an act of war- it’s protecting the world’s food supply.  (There is another problem to be addressed- Russia has mined the Sea near Ukraine’s ports.)

Turkey’s idea is the thread a passage though the mines, allowing escorting ships to help transport the Ukraine harvests to feed the world.  Russia hasn’t agreed to this yet-  they want the US and NATO to remove the embargo on its fertilizer and food exports, in return.

At least Turkey’s idea to have Ukraine’s search and rescue ships guide vessels from the ports may get things started.  As long as Russia won’t attack.  But, I’m betting that US, UK, and French vessels escorting the vessels could help ensure free passage of the harvests.

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