As we worry about supply chains- computer chips, fuel supplies, even baby formula, we seem to have forgotten about the real basic problem.

Consider this.   The Russian invasion of Ukraine has left the world short of grain.  And, sunflower oil.   We, here in America (and Canada), are not really affected by these two problems, since our countries have wonderful harvests of grain.

But, even so- these are big- but not a dire problem.  The world is short of water- pure, drinkable water. As I’ve written many times (back six years ago, here’s one discussion), the amount of water on this planet has been constant.  And, only 3% of the Earth’s water is freshwater- with 30% of that buried underground.

We can see these water shortage effects in Africa.  In India.  In California.  Actually, throughout the Western US.  The World Bank has predicted by 2050 that the GDP of a slew of countries will be cut due to water shortages.  And, that’s before we factor in the effect of climate change.  Because rising temperatures augment the evaporation of water, leads to more intense downpours (including derchos)- and that water runs off without any land absorption.  Which means our underground reservoirs don’t get replenished.

And, then there’s the sea encroaching upon our coastal aquifers, rendering them more saline. And, unless we can develop less energy intensive processes to produce fresh water from brackish or salt water, the whole world will  be suffering from water shortages.

We already have seen the West running out of water as the 1450 mile long Colorado River yields diminished supplies. (This is really nothing new- it’s been a growing problem for the past two decades.)  That river supplies 40 million folks and irrigates 5.5 million acres of agricultural land.  Which means there are shortages in our agricultural output, as well as making it more difficult to find drinking water.

Lake Mead- the river’s largest reservoir- is rapidly running dry. Should its level fall below 1050 feet (it’s almost there now), Arizona will suffer a Tier 2 shortage, cutting water supply by more than 20%.  (The same will happen to Nevada and Mexico.)  An additional 25 foot drop in that level will lead to a Tier 3 shortage, which will extend the cuts to California and each cut will be larger still.

Couple these problems with the West’s Central Valley Aquifer.  It is among the most troubled aquifers around the world.  California (and it’s farming industry) have been stripping it dry to accommodate these two decades of drought.

And, then we have the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains sources.  These aquifers- also troubled- provide water for the states from Virginia to Florida.   (You do know that both Virginia and Florida have had to resort to massive reverse osmosis projects to yield water for their citizens, right?)

Maybe we should start worrying about the real supply issues that affect our lives.  And, prepare for them now, so we don’t run around like chickens with their heads cut off as they manifest more clearly.

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