Is the pandemic waxing or waning? Can we relax the restrictions by which we live our lives? (That means not just those imposed upon us by our governments, but the ones we employ just to keep ourselves safe.) And, by now, I’m sure you’ve heard that NY, NJ, CA, and OR are relaxing their mask mandates.
Well, yesterday I spoke about the Wastewater Based Epidemiology (WBE) system. That provides us with an early warning as to whether the virus situation is getting better or worse. And, this statistic is unbiased- it is not subject to interpretation; the titers are either increasing, staying the same, or decreasing.
We are not dealing with the number of reported cases (Are all cases reported? Is some one padding the data or shaving the numbers?), nor are we dealing with positive results from tests (are these from the rapid tests or the definitive tests? Is everyone being tested? What about tests being done at home?).
How many hospitalizations are occurring as a results of COVID-19? And, don’t get me started on how many COVID-19 cases the hospital is reporting. We need to know the number of patients who dragged themselves to the hospital because they felt symptomatic. Not because they came in with a broken arm and tested positive for COVID-19.
No, I am not trying to minimize the COVID-19 cases. We simply have to know the number of cases where the symptoms merited a visit to the hospital. After all, many of us don’t march into the hospital because we have the flu; it doesn’t mean there isn’t rampant flu or not- but it’s certainly not enough of a threat for us to worry about.
Which then brings up how overcrowded are our hospitals? Are they turning away patients who have scheduled operations? Are the emergency rooms overflowing with patients because the unit is flooded with COVID-19 patients? Does the National Guard need to be impressed to deal with all these patients?
So, by now, you’ve determined that I am really evaluating risk into the equation. We are way past the stages of worrying about someone because of their age and we should be long past dealing with who is vaccinated or not. (No, we are not, just because too many folks are stubbornly refusing to take the jab to minimize their risk- as they maximize ours.)
And, let’s get real. The odds of a vaccinated adult contracting COVID-19 and needing a hospital stay is about 5 in 100,000. (That number is lower if folks have three vaccines in their system.) Vaccinated teenagers approach 1 per million. But, that risk balloons to 67 per 100,000 for those that have refused to be vaccinated. (It seems that the risk for preteens is also about 5 per 100,000- although it may be slightly higher for the omicron variant.)
So, if we know that the pandemic is waning in our region and we’ve been triply vaccinated, then we can relax a little. Maybe we can feel comfortable taking in a show at the local theater (despite the mandates, while wearing our masks). Or, inviting over a friend or two who has also been triply vaccinated- and hasn’t traveled to an area where the pandemic is raging over the past 14 days.
Because we can’t live our lives in perpetual fear of a bogeyman that is NOT out there.
Yes, we are moving into the “must live with it” phase It’s going to be a process, as the saying goes. To me, what is urgent is having effective treatments because I think we will all get “it” sooner or later. (I’m fully vaccinated and boosted but I do personally know one person who had the same status who was hospitalized with Omicron. He’s home but we don’t know if he’s OK). People where I live in New York are already taking matters into their own hands. The mandate is not being enforced in many counties, and it’s going away tomorrow, anyway. So….
Alana recently posted..Strawberry Onions #WordlessWednesday
We have effective treatments now, Alana- just not a slew of them. And, the costs are pretty high, too.
Good info as usual, Roy. If people understood that the mRNA vaccine has been under study for 70 years, they might not be so fearful. Then it would really be safer for all of us.
Victoria Juster recently posted..Suicide
I’m with you, Victoria. IF we had more vaccinated folks, COVID-19 would greatly attenuate.
We been vaccinated and boostered but still wear our masks. According to the numbers in SC, the cases are still high. We don’t want to take any chances og getting or giving covid.
Martha recently posted..Lia and Carlos
I’m with you, Martha. That’s why I shared those criteria- to help us each make the right choice for ourselves.