I don’t think I am that atypical for my generation.

Since I’ve been born, I’ve lived in 11 different homes.  5 different states.  9 different cities.

That was the way of the world in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.  Back when I was a tyke, 20% of the American population found a new place to live- each and very year.  It was primary the younger generations that moved- from those approaching adulthood (late teens) until that wave-change in our blood that happens around age 34 or so.

Part of that was folks creating a family, moving to the suburbs (a new invention of the 1950s, thanks to folks like Levitt).  Factories would close- which would necessitate moving to keep the family solvent.

Not so true anymore.

Now, rents are sky-high.  Millennials (and every other generation) are saddled with inane levels of student debt.  And, jobs pay poorly- pretty much everywhere.

Which is one big reason why only 9.8% of us moved in the 12 month period that ended Q1-2019.  The absolutely lowest recording by the Census Bureau since they began checking this data in 1947.  (It’s also the first time that statistic falls below 10%.)

Another reason- the gray-hairing of America.  We’re getting older.  And, we old farts tend to move less and slower.  (Pun IS intended.)   But, it’s not just the older set.  It’s not just the college-educated or the GED-holders.  It’s pervasive among all census blocks. As an example, those ‘high-movers’ of yore, those between their late teens and early thirties,  in particular has provided a precipitous decline in transplanting their lives; before the Great Depression (around 2005-6) some 29% picked up stakes and this past year that has decayed to 20%.   And, folks of my age- we’re pretty much planted in place nowadays (despite all the hoopla of moving South or West or to nursing homes)- just 4% of us took the plunge.

And, before you think this is because places like California has lost its appeal, we need to consider a sub-statistic of moving.  60% of the moves used to be within the same county.  (Two abodes of mine met this rule.)  Half of them, or about 30% of all moves, were folks  looking for better or more optimum housing.

The economy isn’t helping either.  Not just the lack of jobs- but the fact that most jobs (with the exception of Silicon Valley and Manhattan) are not offering pay differentials. And, Dr. David Autor (MIT economics prof) found that urban areas no longer have those higher paying jobs for those who lack college credentials.  (Presented as the Richard Ely Lecture at the American Economics Association, January 2019.)

He found that production, clerical, and administrative jobs that paid better in urban areas began disappearing in the 1970s.  (Along with the abrogation of social contracts between employers and employees.)  Now, those jobs may still exist- but there’s no pay differential for performing those functions in urban areas.  Moreover, many of those jobs are now demanding college degrees.  It’s the personal service areas (the ones that pay at or slightly above minimum wage) such as food, cleaning, health, transportation, and repair jobs that exist in our cities.

Economists and demographers are studying this phenomenon, this (lack of ) shift- and are not able to come us with any straight forward conclusions as to why.  Sure, the Great Recession has played a part.  Getting married later, delays in deciding to have kids, they all played a part.

But, all the analyses I read didn’t catch one new critical factor.  The Tax Cut and Jobs Act.  Which I consider the piece de resistance, the nail in the coffin against our nomadic history.

The new tax law removes the deductions for looking for a new job.  Admittedly, that was only if it exceeded 2% of one’s income.  But, it was a frequently used deduction.

And, then, there’s the big kick in the teeth- moving expenses are no longer deductible.  So, the subsidy Uncle Sam provided our “Winnebago” mentality makes it less viable to make those moves. As long as you took a new job- and the new job was 50 miles further away from your old  home, you could deduct your moving expenses.  And, this did NOT require you to itemize your expenses.

Another unintended circumstance of the new tax law.  (Besides the $ 1 trillion in debt this bill has added to the US Treasury?  Without a drop in increased investment or pay for American workers?)