Way back when Bicarbolyte was around, I spent many a day at the International Inn in Long Beach. That was both before and after I had my own place by the beach. It’s where I met the estimable Kay Dougherty, who owned this hotel (and for whom the Long Beach Airport is named).

Kay would regale me (and my daughters, if they were with me) with stories about early aviation in the US (and what California and Long Beach were like when she was young). We’d while away the hours- and more than a few bottles of stellar red wine.

So, it wasn’t surprising to me one night when I woke up thinking the world was spinning. OK. It felt more like I had invested more than a few quarters in the “magic fingers” unit by the bed. (In case you have no idea about what I am talking- which means you have to be younger than 35 or so, John Houghtaling invented this device that was the staple in mid-priced hotels. One would put a quarter in the unit, which was connected to the bed, and it would vibrate for about 15 minutes. My kids loved that device.)

But, it wasn’t. I meandered over to the sliding glass doors, and through the panes I watched the water in the swimming pool slop around. (The International Inn had a much larger pool than the video shown above- but I didn’t have a movie camera with me then to film it.) Yes, I was now experiencing my second earthquake.

And, if you lived in California, you knew that earthquakes were almost a routine experience. (Yes, I’ve experience two earthquakes living here in Virginia, too.)

The problem is that we haven’t perfected how to predict exactly when an earthquake is coming. Not that scientist and technologists are not seeking out new ways all the time. But, they may be closing on a system now- or at least the earthquakes that can produce tsunamis to compound the damage they inflict.

Using combinations of GPS (global positioning systems), sonar beacons, and aquatic robots, scientists can tell when a really big earthquake may form along the ocean floor and devastate communities nearby. (Note that GPS don’t penetrate seawater- so other devices have to be used in conjunction with the units,)

The research vessel Tangaroa (named after the Maori king of the sea) from the New Zealand Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research is busy depositing materials to surveil the ocean floor along the ‘Ring of Fire’. In particular, they are focusing their efforts on the Hikurangi Trench, east of New Zealand’s North Island- where two of the earth plates meet (or collide).

The goal is to monitor the subduction zone. And, to cut costs, they are using wave gliders (built by Liquid Robotics, a unit of Boeing), which look like surfboards laden with high tech equipment. (The equipment can amass the data from the ocean floor; and the gliders use GPS to stay ‘on target’- at a cost of under $ 2500 a week- a decimal of what the research ship costs to run. And, Boeing is adapting the gliders to be able to extend their range and remain in place, despite some of the more powerful ocean currents near Japan.)

The goal is to develop new computer models that recognize how the tectonic plates move- smoothly or when the ‘snag’, thereby triggering earthquakes. And, since these detected earthquakes are in the water, they won’t really help folks in California- but they will be useful to predict earthquakes like the ones that devastated Indonesia (2004 and 2018) or like the tsunami-quake of Japan (2011).

We can only hope we perfect the technique quickly!

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