Great news!!!!!

That’s right- it will  be just a matter of a few years before the GOP changes its stupidity and develops a thinking brain.

Oh, wait. That didn’t come out politically correct. It’s just a matter of a few years before the GOP will finally recognize that climate change is real.

Our extreme weather is going to radically alter the production of barley.  Which means the world’s ability to make beer will be diminished. Which means the price of beer is going to skyrocket.

That’ll make the beer crowd take notice. And, complain to their Congressfolks and Senators that they really have to do something. Because TheDonald’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have already raised the prices on their brewskies. Things are just going to get worse for the beer crowd. (By the way, beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world.)

Drs. Wei Xie and Tariq Ali (Peking University) , Wei Xiong, Jie Pan, and Erda Lin (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences), Qi Cui (Beijing Normal University), Dabo Guan (University of East Anglia UK), Jing Meng (University of Cambridge UK), and Nathaniel Mueller and Steven Davis (UC Irvine) detailed these findings in an article published in Nature Plants, Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. 

(Just so you know, it’s not just barley that will be affected. Other staples such as wheat and rice – [and my favorite- wine] are going to be hurt, too.)

Dr. Guan thought that elucidating the effects of climate change on beer would get people to understand what global warming will really mean to them. (I can’t believe how many folks are not paying attention to the flooding of Norfolk [VA] and southern Florida because of climate change. Oh, the Pentagon clearly is- they have a whole bunch of scenarios they are trying to prevent right now. But, other than the Pentagon, no one [in the government] seems to be worried about food security due to climate change.)

The study in Nature examines how likely heat waves and major droughts will occur over six continents. Using four scenarios (from the best case which expects low levels of greenhouse gas emissions to the worst case which envisions high emissions) and crop growth/yield models, they determined how much less barley will be able to grow. The results are shown below.

But, these are not uniform numbers. Tropical areas (Central and South America) were hit badly- those results are seen at the top of the red lines. And, some places (northern China and the US) will actually be able to produce more barley than before- but those regional increases won’t offset the losses in the rest of the world.

To finish their analysis, the data was plugged into economic models (to discern the effects of supply and demand on a global basis). The worst case scenario envisioned a 16% drop in potential beer consumption (you can’t consume more than one can produce!)- and the price of a bottle of beer would double. (If we keep those tariffs, there would be more of an increase due to aluminum costs.)

I was personally surprised to find out that America is not the beer drinking capital- Ireland is. Even China drinks more beer than us. (Hmm. I’m guessing that’s population based, though.) The scenarios developed by the researchers demonstrate that Chinese market would be limited by some 4.3 billion liters of beer (1.5 billion six-packs)- a year! (While more barley would be produced in the US according to the model, it would be exporting more- so American beer consumption would still take a hit! On top of that, Ireland would end up paying 3X as much as they do now. )

Just so you know- the best-case scenario predicts a 15% increase in the price of beer!

Bottoms up?  Or, not…

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